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Talousharhoja - kosmologi puhuu


5.5.2014 kello 08:43 - Kari Uoti


 


Yhteiskuntatieteet, taloustiede ja oikeustiede eivät ole tieteitä luonnontieteellisessä mielessä. Ne ovat vähän sitä sun tätä, mitä kulloinenkin auktoriteetti haluaa sen olevan. Tämän vuoksi taloudelliset ja oikeudelliset ratkaisut, jotka eivät paranna yleistä hyvää, vaan tuhoavat sitä, pitäisi jättää tekemättä, vaikka kuinka kulloinenkin "teoria" tai "totuus" väärää janoaisi. 

 

Tähän liittyy ns. keisarilla ei ole vaatteita ilmiö. Tapahtuu asioita, jotka vaikuttavat typeriltä, ne vaikuttavat typeriltä, koska ne ovat sitä. Ratkaisujen perusteena käytetään argumentteja, jotka ovat pelkkiä fraaseja, mutta jotka johtavat kaikenlaiseen hulluuteen.

 

Esimerkiksi Arsenal myi vuonna 2000 saatavansa suomalaisislta velallisiltaan 5 % arvosta ulkomaalaisille perintäyhtiöille, jotka jatkoivat velalliset kurittamista. Samalla velallisille ei annettu mahdollisuutta vapautua veloistaan ja palata yhteiskuntaan maksamalla tämä sama 5 %.

 

Miksi ei, no koska kaikkia on kohdeltava samalla tavalla. Valtiota sitoi velvollisuus yhdenmukaiseen kohteluun, mikä tässä legitimisoi ahdistuksen ja pahuuden, yhteiskunnallisen tuhon.

 

Syksy Räsänen käsittelee teemaa "taloustieteen" osalta alla olevassa hesarin tänään julkaisemassa artikkelissa. Erittäin selkeää ja yksinkertaista. Mikä ei ole totta, mikä ei toimi, pitää hylätä ja löytää tilalle totuus, malli, joka toimii.

 

HS 5.5.2014

Jos­kus aja­tel­laan, et­tä tie­tei­li­jät löy­tä­vät oi­keat maail­maa ku­vaa­vat mal­lit vain ne­rok­kaan älyn­sä avul­la.

To­del­li­suu­des­sa luon­non­tie­tei­li­jät pi­tää kai­dal­la tiel­lä en­nen kaik­kea mal­lien ver­taa­mi­nen ha­vain­toi­hin: jos mal­li ei vas­taa ha­vain­to­ja, se on vää­rin.

Oli esi­mer­kik­si esi­tet­ty mal­le­ja, joi­den mu­kaan Higg­sin hiuk­kas­ta ei ole ole­mas­sa. Sen puo­les­ta Stephen Hawkingkin löi ve­toa. CER­Nin löy­det­tyä Higg­sin hiuk­ka­sen vuon­na 2012 nois­ta mal­leis­ta ei enää pu­hu­ta, ja Haw­king on sa­ta dol­la­ria köy­hem­pi.

TA­LOUS­TIE­TEEN KOH­DAL­LA toi­mi­taan toi­sin. Eu­roop­pa on ta­lou­del­li­ses­sa krii­sis­sä, jo­ka on Krei­kas­sa yl­ty­nyt ka­tast­ro­fik­si. On ole­mas­sa eri­lai­sia teo­rioi­ta krii­sin syis­tä, ja nii­den poh­jal­le on ra­ken­net­tu vas­tak­kai­sia mal­le­ja sen hoi­ta­mi­ses­ta.

Ta­lou­des­ta on pal­jon ha­vain­to­ja, jo­hon ver­taa­mal­la voi­tai­siin hy­lä­tä mal­lit, joi­den en­nus­teet ovat vää­rin. Vas­taa­vas­ti oi­keaan osu­nei­siin mal­lei­hin, nii­den teo­reet­ti­siin läh­tö­koh­tiin ja nii­tä esit­tä­nei­siin hen­ki­löi­hin pi­täi­si suh­tau­tua va­ka­vam­min. Näin ei kui­ten­kaan teh­dä.

Kan­sain­vä­li­sen va­luut­ta­ra­has­to IMF:n en­nus­teet ta­lou­del­li­ses­ta ke­hi­tyk­ses­tä ovat ol­leet erit­täin vir­heel­li­siä.

ESI­MER­KIK­SI vuo­si­na 2007–2011 IMF tois­tu­vas­ti en­nus­ti Krei­kan brut­to­kan­san­tuot­teen seu­raa­va­na vuon­na nou­se­van tai las­kun tait­tu­van, kun brut­to­kan­san­tuo­te jat­ku­vas­ti ro­mah­ti.

 

Oli esi­mer­kik­si esi­tet­ty mal­le­ja, joi­den mu­kaan Higg­sin hiuk­kas­ta ei ole ole­mas­sa. Sen puo­les­ta Stephen Hawkingkin löi ve­toa. CER­Nin löy­det­tyä Higg­sin hiuk­ka­sen vuon­na 2012 nois­ta mal­leis­ta ei enää pu­hu­ta, ja Haw­king on sa­ta dol­la­ria köy­hem­pi.

 

TA­LOUS­TIE­TEEN KOH­DAL­LA toi­mi­taan toi­sin. Eu­roop­pa on ta­lou­del­li­ses­sa krii­sis­sä, jo­ka on Krei­kas­sa yl­ty­nyt ka­tast­ro­fik­si. On ole­mas­sa eri­lai­sia teo­rioi­ta krii­sin syis­tä, ja nii­den poh­jal­le on ra­ken­net­tu vas­tak­kai­sia mal­le­ja sen hoi­ta­mi­ses­ta.

Ta­lou­des­ta on pal­jon ha­vain­to­ja, jo­hon ver­taa­mal­la voi­tai­siin hy­lä­tä mal­lit, joi­den en­nus­teet ovat vää­rin. Vas­taa­vas­ti oi­keaan osu­nei­siin mal­lei­hin, nii­den teo­reet­ti­siin läh­tö­koh­tiin ja nii­tä esit­tä­nei­siin hen­ki­löi­hin pi­täi­si suh­tau­tua va­ka­vam­min. Näin ei kui­ten­kaan teh­dä.

Kan­sain­vä­li­sen va­luut­ta­ra­has­to IMF:n en­nus­teet ta­lou­del­li­ses­ta ke­hi­tyk­ses­tä ovat ol­leet erit­täin vir­heel­li­siä.

ESI­MER­KIK­SI vuo­si­na 2007–2011 IMF tois­tu­vas­ti en­nus­ti Krei­kan brut­to­kan­san­tuot­teen seu­raa­va­na vuon­na nou­se­van tai las­kun tait­tu­van, kun brut­to­kan­san­tuo­te jat­ku­vas­ti ro­mah­ti.

 

IMF:n mal­le­ja tai nii­den pe­rus­ta­na ole­via teo­rioi­ta ei kui­ten­kaan ole hy­lät­ty, ei­kä luot­ta­mus IMF:n neu­voi­hin ole las­ke­nut. IMF:n suo­si­tuk­sis­sa on ol­lut kes­keis­tä jul­ki­sen sek­to­rin leik­kaa­mi­nen, min­kä yk­si osa on ih­mis­ten hy­vin­voin­tia yl­lä­pi­tä­vien yh­tei­ses­ti kus­tan­net­tu­jen pal­ve­lu­jen hei­ken­tä­mi­nen.

Näi­tä oh­jei­ta to­teut­ta­vat su­mei­le­mat­ta niin Krei­kan kuin Suo­men­kin hal­li­tus.

KIL­PAI­LE­VIA MAL­LE­JA on esi­tet­ty. Useat ta­lous­tie­tei­li­jät, muun muas­sa no­be­lis­tit Paul Krugman ja Joseph Stiglitz, ovat ar­vos­tel­leet leik­kaus­ten teo­reet­ti­sia pe­rus­tei­ta ja sa­no­neet nii­den sy­ven­tä­vän krii­siä. Suo­mes­sa po­li­tii­kan läh­tö­koh­ta­na on kui­ten­kin se, et­tä leik­kaus­ten poh­ja­na ole­vat mal­lit ovat to­sia kuin Higg­sin hiuk­ka­nen.

Po­liit­ti­set toi­mi­jat saa­vat to­ki va­li­ta kan­tan­sa ideo­lo­gi­sin pe­rus­tein, mut­ta hei­dän pi­täi­si ol­la re­hel­li­siä, ei­kä esit­tää ta­lou­del­li­sia us­ko­muk­sia tie­teel­li­si­nä to­sia­sioi­na.

Ku­kaan täys­jär­ki­nen ei ra­ken­tai­si len­to­ko­net­ta sel­lais­ten il­man vir­taus­ta ku­vaa­vien mal­lien poh­jal­le, jot­ka tie­de­tään vää­rik­si.

KUIN­KA VER­RAT­TO­MAN pal­jon vas­tuut­to­mam­paa on­kaan pe­rus­taa mil­joo­nien ih­mis­ten hy­vin­voin­tiin vai­kut­ta­vat pää­tök­set ka­tast­ro­faa­li­sen vir­heel­li­sik­si osoit­tau­tu­nei­siin teo­rioi­hin?

 

Jos­kus aja­tel­laan, et­tä tie­tei­li­jät löy­tä­vät oi­keat maail­maa ku­vaa­vat mal­lit vain ne­rok­kaan älyn­sä avul­la.

 

To­del­li­suu­des­sa luon­non­tie­tei­li­jät pi­tää kai­dal­la tiel­lä en­nen kaik­kea mal­lien ver­taa­mi­nen ha­vain­toi­hin: jos mal­li ei vas­taa ha­vain­to­ja, se on vää­rin.

Oli esi­mer­kik­si esi­tet­ty mal­le­ja, joi­den mu­kaan Higg­sin hiuk­kas­ta ei ole ole­mas­sa. Sen puo­les­ta Stephen Hawkingkin löi ve­toa. CER­Nin löy­det­tyä Higg­sin hiuk­ka­sen vuon­na 2012 nois­ta mal­leis­ta ei enää pu­hu­ta, ja Haw­king on sa­ta dol­la­ria köy­hem­pi.

TA­LOUS­TIE­TEEN KOH­DAL­LA toi­mi­taan toi­sin. Eu­roop­pa on ta­lou­del­li­ses­sa krii­sis­sä, jo­ka on Krei­kas­sa yl­ty­nyt ka­tast­ro­fik­si. On ole­mas­sa eri­lai­sia teo­rioi­ta krii­sin syis­tä, ja nii­den poh­jal­le on ra­ken­net­tu vas­tak­kai­sia mal­le­ja sen hoi­ta­mi­ses­ta.

Ta­lou­des­ta on pal­jon ha­vain­to­ja, jo­hon ver­taa­mal­la voi­tai­siin hy­lä­tä mal­lit, joi­den en­nus­teet ovat vää­rin. Vas­taa­vas­ti oi­keaan osu­nei­siin mal­lei­hin, nii­den teo­reet­ti­siin läh­tö­koh­tiin ja nii­tä esit­tä­nei­siin hen­ki­löi­hin pi­täi­si suh­tau­tua va­ka­vam­min. Näin ei kui­ten­kaan teh­dä.

Kan­sain­vä­li­sen va­luut­ta­ra­has­to IMF:n en­nus­teet ta­lou­del­li­ses­ta ke­hi­tyk­ses­tä ovat ol­leet erit­täin vir­heel­li­siä.

ESI­MER­KIK­SI vuo­si­na 2007–2011 IMF tois­tu­vas­ti en­nus­ti Krei­kan brut­to­kan­san­tuot­teen seu­raa­va­na vuon­na nou­se­van tai las­kun tait­tu­van, kun brut­to­kan­san­tuo­te jat­ku­vas­ti ro­mah­ti.

IMF:n mal­le­ja tai nii­den pe­rus­ta­na ole­via teo­rioi­ta ei kui­ten­kaan ole hy­lät­ty, ei­kä luot­ta­mus IMF:n neu­voi­hin ole las­ke­nut. IMF:n suo­si­tuk­sis­sa on ol­lut kes­keis­tä jul­ki­sen sek­to­rin leik­kaa­mi­nen, min­kä yk­si osa on ih­mis­ten hy­vin­voin­tia yl­lä­pi­tä­vien yh­tei­ses­ti kus­tan­net­tu­jen pal­ve­lu­jen hei­ken­tä­mi­nen.

Näi­tä oh­jei­ta to­teut­ta­vat su­mei­le­mat­ta niin Krei­kan kuin Suo­men­kin hal­li­tus.

KIL­PAI­LE­VIA MAL­LE­JA on esi­tet­ty. Useat ta­lous­tie­tei­li­jät, muun muas­sa no­be­lis­tit Paul Krugman ja Joseph Stiglitz, ovat ar­vos­tel­leet leik­kaus­ten teo­reet­ti­sia pe­rus­tei­ta ja sa­no­neet nii­den sy­ven­tä­vän krii­siä. Suo­mes­sa po­li­tii­kan läh­tö­koh­ta­na on kui­ten­kin se, et­tä leik­kaus­ten poh­ja­na ole­vat mal­lit ovat to­sia kuin Higg­sin hiuk­ka­nen.

Po­liit­ti­set toi­mi­jat saa­vat to­ki va­li­ta kan­tan­sa ideo­lo­gi­sin pe­rus­tein, mut­ta hei­dän pi­täi­si ol­la re­hel­li­siä, ei­kä esit­tää ta­lou­del­li­sia us­ko­muk­sia tie­teel­li­si­nä to­sia­sioi­na.

Ku­kaan täys­jär­ki­nen ei ra­ken­tai­si len­to­ko­net­ta sel­lais­ten il­man vir­taus­ta ku­vaa­vien mal­lien poh­jal­le, jot­ka tie­de­tään vää­rik­si.

KUIN­KA VER­RAT­TO­MAN pal­jon vas­tuut­to­mam­paa on­kaan pe­rus­taa mil­joo­nien ih­mis­ten hy­vin­voin­tiin vai­kut­ta­vat pää­tök­set ka­tast­ro­faa­li­sen vir­heel­li­sik­si osoit­tau­tu­nei­siin teo­rioi­hin?

Syk­sy Rä­sä­nen
Kir­joit­ta­ja on kos­mo­lo­gi.

 

 

 

 Kommentit ()

Lisää kommentti
 5.5.2014 - 20:20:16

Mitä tulee talouteen ja politiikkaan, ihminen ei voi koskaan tietää varmaksi tulevaisuutta niiden kohdalla, sillä talous ja politiikka eivät pohjaudu luonnonlakeihin. Taloudessa ja politiikassa ihmiset siis muodostavat omilla valinnoillaan niiden tulevaisuuden, vaikka sitä ei voi ennalta täsmällisesti tietääkään.


Samalla mitään ehdottomia totuuksia näissä ei ole olemassa, on vain korkeintaan sillä hetkellä paras vaihtoehto käytettävissä; parempi vaihtoehto ja ymmärrys yhteiskunnasta ja todellisuudesta odottaa kenties huomenna, mutta sekään ei ole ehdoton totuus.


Luonnonlakien kohdalla teoria taas on oltava kutakuinkin tosi: rauta sulaa tietyssä kuumuudessa, vetyauto toimii tiettyjen lakien mukaisesti jne. Tässä yhteydessä ei siis mielipiteillä ole juurikaan väliä, jos ne eivät ole tämän asian suhteen tosia. Politiikassa ja taloudessa mielipiteet voivat kuitenkin vaikuttaa asioiden tilaan ja ihmisten kohtaloihin, vaikka ne eivät olekaan koskaan ehdottomia totuuksia.


Yhteiskuntatieteissä on kuitenkin joskus käytetty tieteellistä valekaapua reippaasti hyväksi. Esimerkiksi marxismi luokitteli itsensä tieteelliseksi. Mielestäni tieteellinen tai tiede- sana saisi korkeintaan kohdistua luonnontieteisiin; yhteiskuntatieteisiin ja taloustieteisiin tämän sanan painoarvo on liian suuri juuri niiden sisältämän totuudettomuuden vuoksi.


"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." - Marcus Aurelius


"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future" -Nils Bohr

 7.5.2014 - 08:57:37

Juuri näin!

 12.5.2014 - 22:51:16

Onko esim Olli Rehn missään ja koskaan kertonut mihin kansantaloustieteelliseen teoriaan perustuu PIIGS -maiden kurjistamispolitiikka?


Ilmeisesti euroa pelastetaan mutu -tuntumalla ja väkisin vääntämällä.

 15.6.2014 - 15:37:37

Jaakko Kiander ja vaiettu dokumentti 1990 luvun laman syistä ja seurauksista:http://www.vatt.fi/file/vatt_publication_pdf/j27-5.pdf

 6.12.2017 - 05:22:57

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